- The US has released weekly export data as follows:
- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 929,568 mt, which brings the season total to 11.184 million mt, this weekly volume is the season to date’s largest and is 422,092 mt (3.9%) ahead of last year. Barley exports for the week reached 37,110 mt, which brings the season total to 1.723 million mt, which is 2.937 million mt (63)% behind last year.
- We come towards the end of another day and see another new contract low in December ’16 Chicago and Kansas wheat futures, which is also reflected in European futures that closed lower again. Global cash wheat prices are seemingly unchanged despite lower futures.
- Reports of swine flu in Russia are circulating but have had no market impact so far. Whilst there is no change to grain flows at present, there is always a possibility that quarantine measures may be instigated and this could impact international trade. The balance of Russian wheat exports, estimated at 15-17 million mt for the remainder of the season, are both relevant and important to global pricing structure and this issue will bear close scrutiny going forward.
- Crude oil values have risen once again with $2.00/barrel added to prices amid optimism over further OPEC follow through and the US$ is a shade lower.
- Brazilian weather forecasts are wetter in the extended forecast but drier in Argentina. The Argentine dryness is also worth keeping an eye on through December as corn and soybean planting progress approaches 60-70% in the next week or so. Brazilian forecasts appear highly favourable at this time with steady precipitation persisting in the next two weeks and potentially further forward.
- This weekend’s Italian vote on constitutional reform will be relevant as far as international currencies are concerned as well as global financial markets. Our thoughts are that we could well be approaching a low within global wheat pricing as well as a high in soybean futures subject to there not being a switch to hot/dry Brazilian conditions in January.