- Yesterday’s soy complex led selloff has seen something of a recovery today (not surprisingly – profit taking) with CBOT wheat leading the way. Seemingly, dry weather in the US is the main culprit, supported by ongoing Ukraine tension. This has spilled into EU markets which have closed firmer tonight.
- There is probably a “bargain hunting” mentality also at work in today’s price rises given the sharp selloff yesterday.
- There is little in the way of fresh news to stimulate the strength in wheat, fund activity has appeared to show them adding to positions, and this has led to stronger prices.
- Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange has forecast the 2013/14 corn crop at 22.7 million mt, which is a 700,000 mt increase from their last estimate.The soybean crop was forecast 300,000 mt lower at 54.7 million mt.
- Rumour abounds on the number of Brazilian soybean cargoes that have been cancelled by China, 20 (over the Friday to Monday period) being the latest number put forward. It is also suggested that there are more in the pipeline. Additionally, in the light of collapsed crush margins (in China) it is suggested that the likelihood of Chinese default on US soybean shipments is now higher, as the financial downside (to China) is less with default than it is with importation and crushing.