- Chicago markets at midday are only fractionally changed and we anticipate a quiet end to the week. The midday GFS is wetter across the W Midwest in the 6-10-day period, but otherwise fresh input is lacking.
- Egypt’s GASC on Thursday released a tender for optional origin wheat for late May/early June arrival. US SRW was the cheapest wheat offered to Egypt on a fob basis, but Egypt ultimately secured 240,000 mt of Romanian and Ukrainian origin. Algeria is also seeking wheat today. HRW pencils into North Africa, but it is very close to French execution. Details are awaited. European milling wheat futures closed slightly higher on the day and on the week.
- Russian interior wheat prices are higher this week, and quietly have rallied to retest all-time highs in Central Regions. The Ruble is stronger, replacement values are again at or above fob offers, and Russian exports will be limited in the remaining two and a half months in the international trade year. We also point out that interior Russian values are 30-50% above this time a year ago. Replenishing Russia’s supply pipeline will surely take some time.
- World pork prices have followed the trend in US hog futures, with meat manufacturers in Europe concerned that the bull market will continue well into summer and autumn. We noted this week that Swine Fever incidences are spreading, not contracting. Biosecurity will be an issue in North America, but in the near-term world pork trade will be rising. Livestock herd growth will be featured in the US and Europe.
- Brazil’s Congress is debating the repeal of a law that prohibits states from taxing ag exports. Brazil needs cash, and higher costs of execution will level the field between exporters there and in the US. Brazil’s soybean and corn export industries are relatively young. Moderate reforms are expected at some point.
- The US$ is slightly weaker and rallies since late March have struggled. Guidance on future fed rate changes is lacking following this week’s comments indicating there are opinions on both sides. Work maintains that the US$ index will struggle above 97 longer term. Crude is firm at $64.05/barrel. US equity markets are higher despite concerns over earnings, with the Dow just 580 points shy of its all-time record scored in October 2018.
- The Brazilian weather forecast is wetter in southern areas beyond April 20. The driest areas of Parana and Sao Paulo will see needed rains just ahead of safrinha corn pollination there.
- Again, the Central US midday GFS weather forecast is wetter across the Western Midwest in the 6-10 day period, but maintains a drier/warmer outlook thereafter. The EU and GFS will end the week in poor agreement on the pattern beyond April 20-21, and important differences remain. Sunday night’s forecast will be key to guage whether a pattern shift occurs in late April, or not. The EU model this morning kept an active pattern of Midwest rainfall intact through April 27.
- Widespread showers impact the Midwest and Delta into Mon/Tues. Follow up showers return to IA, MN, IL and WI late next week. The GFS then allows the jet stream to move northward, ushering in warmer/drier conditions Apr 21-27.
- The markets continue to wait; on China, May Central US weather and new crop world supply and demand estimates. Chinese demand still would be a big deal for US agriculture.