- Today’s USDA crop report has been received as neutral to slightly bearish for soybeans and wheat, and supportive to corn. US corn yield came in under expectation at 167.4 bu/acre some way short of the most optimistic 174.8 bu/acre plus estimates. Soybean yield came in bang on expectation at 45.4 bu/acre. It is our (and many others ) belief that these yield figures will rise in coming reports. One likely outcome will be the narrowing of the soybean/corn spread on the back of today’s data.
- Interestingly NASS used corn ear weight and ears per acre estimates to derive their yield forecast. The released data showed record ear numbers but a less than record ear weight, and certainly below the 2004 record. Using record weight would increase yield by just over 6 bu/acre to 173.3 bu/acre. Corn end stocks for 2014/15 rose by 7 million bu to 1.808 billion bu and total supply reached a record large 15.243 billion bu.
- US soybean output for 2014 was pegged at 3.816 billion bu, a record large crop and 2014/15 end stocks raised to 430 million bu. Any yield increase will likely see end stocks rising to north of 500 million bu.
- All wheat production for the US was raised 38 million bu to 2.030 billion bu on the back of increased winter, spring and durum harvests. Winter wheat grew to 1.4 billion bu, spring to 572 million bu and durum to 60.5 million bu. 2014/15 all wheat end stock was increased 3 million bu to 663 million bu, almost 73 million bu above the previous year.
- Russian wheat output for 2014 was increased 6 million mt to 59 million mt and Ukraine’s grew 1 million mt to 22 million mt. Chinese output at 126 million mt was 2 million mt higher and Canada’s output was also raised2 million mt to 128 million mt. EU wheat exports were reduced 3 million mt to 25 million mt (still too high given quality issues!) and the overall global balance sheet is undoubtedly bearish given the outlook for supplies.
- To download our USDA recap update as a PDF file please click on the link below: