• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 682,800 mt, which is above estimates of 250,000-525,000 mt.
Corn: 1,255,700 mt, which is within estimates of 1,075,000-1,525,000 mt.
Soybeans: 219,300 mt, which is below estimates of 675,000-950,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 143,100 mt, which is below estimates of 175,000-325,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 16,800 mt, which is within estimates of 5,000-25,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 639,900 mt, which brings the season total to 28,166,268 mt. This is 1.92 million mt (4.94%) behind last year.

• The feature today has been spread unwinding with the long soybean vs. corn or wheat amid questions over how many acres will move from corn or sorghum back to soybeans. The view today seems to be one of enhanced soybean acres given the potential for better sales prices. One commentator today stated that soybeans are “the new darling” of the market at this time – buyer beware is our retort! Importer are not chasing the market higher and this is something we would like to watch closely in coming weeks, upside momentum in soybeans appears to be on the wane right now. China is a very reluctant buyer with crush margins deeply in the red and this could be sufficient to put the brakes on higher levels at this time.

• Firmness in grains is a direct consequence of spread unwinding vs. long soybeans and should not be viewed too strongly. There is an argument to be made that there is a “top” forming in soybeans as seasonal wether conditions lean favourable for now.

• There have been suggestions that current prices will encourage a switch of as much as a million acres from corn to soybeans in the US this season although this will be hugely weather dependent.

• It seems that Brazil’s Senate has voted to place President Rousseff on trial for breaching budget laws (on a majority vote).  Vice President Temer will become acting president during her trial.