- Chicago markets are doing very little in the post-USDA report trading sessions, perhaps a reflection on the current lack of fresh news, and also possibly a period of reflection on the shock Chinese stock position.
- US farmers continue to be reported as holding on to recently harvested crops causing an increase in cash basis levels.
- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 448,932 mt. This brings the season total to 8,408,738 mt, which is 2,549,854 mt (23.27%) behind last year, and still well behind the pace required to hit the latest USDA forecast. As a point of interest, our rough calculation suggests that a weekly run rate of over 700,000 mt will be required to reach the USDA’s level and although exporters may be willing and able to supply such volumes there are two obstacles, lack of buyers and strong competition! Alongside this, it is reported that French silos are full and a suspension of futures deliveries may well be on the cards.
- Black Sea weather forecasts continue to contain adequate moisture across Russia and Ukraine in the coming 7-8 days before drier and cooler weather arrives. W Europe looks as if it is scheduled to receive normal/above normal rainfall and any lingering US drought across E KS, MO and IL is all but eliminated as heavy rains are expected across the Plains and Midwest from the middle of next week.
- As we expected, markets are trading in a narrow range and this is likely (in the absence of any fresh news) to continue until early/mid December when S American weather will become the driving factor. This week’s boost to global stocks is likely to cap rallies, despite farmer “hoarding”. Bullish or bearish? It is difficult to take sides at current price levels.