- Sep WASDE lacks fireworks; US corn yield raised; Soy yield unchanged.
- The NASS US September corn yield at 183.6 bushels/acre was slightly bearish, being up 0.5 bushels/acre from August. The US NASS September soybean yield was 53.1 bushels/acre or right at the August forecast and market expectations. Although the US corn yield was slightly better than forecast, traders expect that US corn/soybean yields will decline in October due to dry Central US weather for the past 3 weeks. Chicago values are likely to chop sideways as the harvest begins with combine yield reports being key to daily price direction.
- NASS estimated the 2024 US September corn yield at a record 183.6 bushels/acre, up 0.5 from August. The IL corn yield fell 3 bushels/acre to 222 while IA was up to a record 212 bushels/acre. The IN corn yield rose to a record 210 bushels/acre. There were 9 US states that produced a record corn yield with ears per acre being down 1.7% from last year at 28,900. It is important to note to note that the record large US corn yield was produced by a record ear weight. This produces downside yield risk in future NASS reports as ear counts tend to seasonally decline.
- US 2023/24 corn end stocks were reduced by 55 million bu to 1,812 million with 2024/25 corn end stocks dropping 16 million to 2,057 bushels/acre. WASDE made no adjustment to new crop corn demand. The average US corn farmgate corn price was cut by 10 cents/bu to $4.10.
- US soybean old crop soybean end stocks were dropped 5 million bu based on a like bump in crush to 2,295 million bu which placed stocks at 340 million bu. We note that the new crop US soybean supply fell 8 million bu to 4,941 million with end stocks falling 10 million to 550 million bu. The average farmgate price held steady at $10.80. The modest fall in old and new crop end stocks produced a modest post report rally, but amid large S American harvests, the rally faded. WASDE left its estimate of the 2025 Brazilian soybean crop at a record large 169 million mt with the Argentine soybean crop at 51.0 million mt. China is estimated to import a record 111.5 million mt of soybeans in 2023/24 and 109 million mt in the 2024/25 crop year. Whether it is world or domestic balance sheet changes, the September adjustments were modest, and traders will look to actual harvest yield results and the export demand for price direction. We note that without adverse S American weather, a gradual decline in price is forecast into Q2 2025.
- NASS/WASDE row crop estimates were uninspiring. Chicago choppiness is forecast to prevail as the harvest advances and farmers hold fast to newly gathered supply. US crush and ethanol grind margins will stay profitable well into yearend.
- Sep WASDE wheat data is rather dull as very few adjustments were made to US and global production. In fact, the US wheat balance sheet was left completely untouched, even by-class numbers are unchanged. We reiterate that US production is never altered in mid-Sep as NASS’s Small Grains Summary on Sep 30 is awaited. US end stocks remain estimated at 828 million bu, vs. 702 million in 2023/24.
- 2024/25 world wheat end stocks were increased 600,000 mt, and the increase was largely a function of an upward revision to Canadian beginning stocks, which was known via Stats Can data earlier in the week. 2024/25 world wheat production was lowered 1.4 million mt as a smaller EU harvest (-4 million mt) more than offset higher estimated production in Australia (+2) following ABARES’ estimate in early Sep and Ukraine (+0.7). The Russian balance sheet is unchanged. World wheat trade in 2024/25 was lifted to a near record 216.5 million mt, vs. 214.9 in August, as larger supplies in Australia and Canada will be absorbed by importer demand.
- Major exporter wheat stocks/use is pegged by WASDE at 13.3%, vs. 13.2% and vs. 2007’s record low of 13.1%. The balance sheet stays tight and key in Oct/Nov is whether larger Aussie output offsets coming downward adjustments to Russian and Kazakhstan spring wheat crop sizes.
- The Sep WASDE data lacks fresh input. US combine yield data takes priority beginning in late September. US corn yields in Oct are typically changed only slightly, while changes in US soy yield in Oct range from 0.3-0.8 bushels/acre. The next few weeks will be a battle between large US cash supplies at harvest and concerning dryness in S America and the Black Sea region. Choppy/sideways market are forecast though the balance of Sep.