• Key data today included another big week of wheat export licences with 610,000 mt issued by Brussels bringing the year to date total to 9.533 million mt, 1.228 million mt above last year, which is a 15% increase. To put this into perspective, the USDA’s report issued earlier this week forecast EU exports for the season at 9% up on previous. Given the lack of availability in the Black Sea region, it is unlikely that the current export pace will reduce sufficiently to hit the USDA forecast. Additionally we hear that Indian supplies are being questioned on quality grounds and we know Argentine supplies are tight, so demand will remain for EU supplies.

• US weekly export figures were issued as follows:

Wheat: 573,400 mt, above estimates of 300-550,000 mt.
Corn: 272,600 mt, within estimates of 100-300,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1,319,500 mt, above estimates of 600-850,000 mt.
Soymeal: 271,800 mt, within estimates of 200-350 mt.
Beanoil: 30,500 mt, within estimates of 15-40,000 mt.

• The key number again lies in soybeans, which are running at over 30% ahead of this time last year and at 81% of the USDA’s full year estimated export level. Either the estimate is too low or export sales have to collapse in volume, and soon, which will likely only be as a result of sharply higher price levels. Meal export levels are also running ahead of USDA numbers, and again we would expect to see either a revised USDA forecast (higher) or a slowdown caused by higher prices.

• The EU wheat markets took a tumble towards the close, seemingly on news that Rotterdam based Abengoa, a bio-ethanol producer with a wheat capacity of 1.2 million mt and a bio-ethanol output of 127 million gallons, is to close for a period of three months (or if rumours are true, possibly longer). This news was swiftly followed up by further (unconfirmed) rumours of additional plant closures.

• Prices dropped despite the continuing strong export demand, which shows just how fragile these elevated price levels really are!