• Another “up” day today in Chicago, well – almost, corn closed about unchanged whilst wheat and the soybean complex saw some reasonable gains. S American soybean meal FOB export prices gained, as did Rotterdam, on news of tight supplies. No doubt in a few weeks this will change significantly as availability picks up. News that S American weather conditions are cause for concern has met with a mixed response; too wet in some of the soybean belt and overly hot and dry in some regions of Brazil. The only response will be when harvest is finalised and output truly known, it seems almost inconceivable that anything less than a record Brazilian crop could be produced.

• It is estimated that Brazil’s soybean harvest will reach 20% complete by the weekend and reports continue to suggest yield levels are good, to say the least.

• Consumers appear to be covering near term supplies adding support to front month contracts, and this has been a feature for some while now. No doubt buyers will be looking for some near term respite and an easing of premiums before too long.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 626,600 mt which is within estimates of 450,000-750,000 mt.
Corn: 1,349,900 mt which is above estimates of 800,000-1,200,000 mt.
Soybeans: 296,200 mt which is below estimates of 600,000-950,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 232,700 mt which is within estimates of 150,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 53,300 mt which is above estimates of 10,000-50,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export licences totalling just under 350,000 mt, which brings the session total to 19.458 million mt. This is 6.181 million mt (46.6%) ahead of last year’s same time total.

• In a news release earlier today the USDA reported that US farmers would likely plant less corn in 2014, preferring to sow wheat and soybeans instead. The corn acreage for 2014/15 was forecast at 93.5 million acres, a reduction on the latest 2013/14 figure of 95.4 million acres. Soybean acres were projected for 2014/15 at 78 million, an increase from 76.5 million, and wheat acres were estimated at 57 million, up from 56.2 million. In the same release, the USDA projected Chinese soybean imports to grow in 2014/15 from this year’s expected 69 million mt to 72.8 million mt.

• Stratégie Grains raised its estimate for 2014/15 soft wheat exports by 1.2 million mt to 21.7 million mt (month on month), which compares with their 2013/14 estimate of 24.3 million mt (lower than our current estimate). Soft wheat output for 2014/15 was reduced slightly, by 200,000 mt (month on month) to 137.5 million mt, compared with 134.6 in 2013/14 million mt. End of season stocks for 2014/15 were cut by 2.7 million mt to 15.8 million mt (month on month), compared with the 2013/14 figure of 13.1 million mt. The number, whilst a month on month reduction, still shows significant annual growth which is the cornerstone of our long term price view, which (in case anyone was unclear) is broadly bearish.