- Today’s trade in Chicago has been all about markets digesting next week’s US temperature as the weather models continue to get warmer across the Plains. We are keeping a close eye on any pattern change to cooler and/or wetter although there is little, if any, suggestion that this will be the case through to late July. As each day passes without a shift to better rain prospects there will be a growing weather premium, which mat well be difficult to remove as time passes. On the other hand, wheat prices continue to struggle on bearish fundamental data. Egypt purchased 180,000 mt of wheat on Tuesday; prices were unsurprisingly competitive (some below replacement) as sellers search for demand and as much as 800,000 mt was offered.
- Corn’s balance sheet will be less affected by yield loss, wheat’s balance sheet is largely made and remains bearish, Russian wheat crop estimates continue to rise, but it’s soybean’s balance sheet that is most dynamic. There’s little room for yield error as the Sep-Nov soybean export program looks to be by far record large at this time.