- US soybean good/excellent condition is at 64%, unchanged from last week and the crop is 62% harvested vs. the five year average of 54%. Corn good/excellent condition is also unchanged week on week at 68% and is 42% harvested vs. the five year average of 43%. The US winter wheat crop is reported to be 64% planted, which is just behind the five year average of 66%.
- We have seen a generally weaker Chicago today with Nov ’15 soybeans backing off the lower level we mentioned yesterday ($9.20/bu) before closing at $9.10/bu. Whether this is the end of the bulls’ energy remains to be seen! Fund buyers have not been very active, and this could signal the general willingness to follow the market higher. Corn and wheat have also followed lower (6 and 10 cents respectively) after yesterday’s push higher.
- The US$ Index fell to a new month low, and the Brazilian Real was 1% higher against the US$ earlier in the day. Crude oil is a touch lower and equity markets continue lower as well.
- S American weather forecasts continue to look favourable with good rains in the South. Elsewhere is a touch dryer but not sufficiently so to raise undue concern and planting is continuing apace.
- We continue to believe that a secondary price top is in the process of forming.