• Soybean futures were higher overnight and up 3-4 cents at the close on Monday. Both the US and China continue to express hopes that a trade deal is close, which along with uncertainty for the start of the upcoming planting season supported Chicago. There were two cargos of old crop soybean sales to an unknown destination announced, while export inspections fell to a marketing year low of 17 million bu. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated that national soybean planting progress estimates would be available next week. But based on recent snowfall/rain, and the current forecast we doubt that much progress has been made across the Cornbelt. There were just three states that are reporting planting progress in the individual state reports for this week. Planting progress in LA, MS, and AR are ahead of last year, but all three states were behind their five-year averages. Support in July soybeans was established following the quarterly stocks report below $9, while major moving averages are just above the market from $9.20-9.30.

• Chicago corn futures ended a bit higher as US/China negotiations near an end, and as funds (index and managed) have very little long exposure. A choppy holiday-shortened week lies ahead. US corn seeding as of Sunday reached 3% complete, even with this week a year ago vs. the five-year average of 5%. Less than three days since April 1 have suitable for fieldwork in IA and IL. Little or no progress is expected there this week, and so key will be whether drier model guidance verifies in late April/early May. Brazilian corn is offered for mid/late summer arrival at $158/mt, a full $10/mt below US Gulf origin. Argentine origin even when adding cost to port is offered at $155-158. Drought is unlikely across key areas of Brazil during safrinha pollination. World demand will drift increasingly to the S Hemisphere, which again underscores the importance of reopening China’s market to the US farmer. Enlarged S American export potential will act as a weight on Chicago rallies. Global corn supplies are abundant. It is now about looking for the spark (China or US weather) that drives managed money out of a near record short position. A US/China trade deal offers the best chance for a rally.

• US wheat futures ended steady to lower, with weakness most pronounced in KC. Another round of moderate showers will impact critical areas of Ukraine/S Russia in the next two days. Early crop development in the Black Sea is said to be favourable at this early date. Funds sold 3,400 contracts in Chicago. US winter wheat ratings were unchanged at 60%, vs. 31% a year ago. The HRW index this week rests at 364, up a point on last week. Warming temperatures across the Southern and Central Plains will accelerate growth. Positive soil moisture anomalies are noted across the whole of the Plains wheat belt. The US spring crop is only 2% planted. A drier trend develops across the Dakotas moving forward, and so it is premature to be concerned about spring wheat acreage and planting dates. It remains still too dry in Europe and too wet across the E Midwest/Delta, but a larger Northern Hemisphere wheat crop appears to be in the making. Recall seasonal trends turn positive between mid-April and late May when Black Sea weather has more meaning.

Fund positions disaggregated data