- November soybeans had selling against the 20 day moving average overnight, which set the tone for the rest of Wednesday’s trading. Similar selling was uncovered in December meal at the 50-day moving average, which led Chicago soy trade lower.
- NOPA reported an end of July soyoil stocks figure of 1.764 billion lbs. Even with a larger than expected production total, the soyoil stocks figure was still below expectations and nearly unchanged from June. This is suggesting that strong biofuel demand continues, and NASS is expected to report a similar change to national soyoil stocks at the end of the month. NOPA soymeal exports were down slightly from June, but still 24% larger than a year ago and the largest July NOPA meal export rate on record.
- The last half of the week will be directed towards weekly export sales and Midwest weather. Traders are also watching some much-needed rains develop across some of the driest parts of Cornbelt, to gauge crop benefit. Initial support for Nov soybeans is just under $8.60.
- CBOT corn futures impressively shrugged off collapsing crude and metals markets. Dec corn traded in just a 4.5 cent range, and recall on Tuesday we mentioned seasonal trends are very neutral in Aug-Sep. The market has now digested yield potential of 178-179 bushels/acre. Validation is needed via Pro Farmer’s tour next week, as well as early combine data, which may appear as soon as early September.
- FAS this morning reported a sale to unknown destinations worth 115,000 mt, of which 55,000 mt is for old crop delivery. Gulf corn maintains a modest discount to Argentine origin into Asia through Sep. Otherwise, there’s just not much competition for export demand into the early part of winter. Export sales on Thursday are estimated in a range of 45-55 million bu, both old and new crop years combined.
- Look for ongoing narrow ranges and a lack of corn-specific news. Rallies will be capped by finishing rains due in the C and E Corn Belt this week. Breaks will be supported by ongoing export interest and lofty ethanol blend margins. A secondary low will likely be scored prior to the Sep crop report. Confirmation of NASS’s Aug yield is needed for the spec community to sustain its net short position. The world feedgrain balance sheet remains tight.
- World wheat futures ended mixed, with US contracts down 9-12 cents and EU/Black Sea futures down fractionally. The US market continues to rid itself of market length, but fundamentals haven’t changed much at all. We highlight that Russian cash prices especially have moved very little since the release of the USDA’s Aug WASDE. Spot Russian prices are down $2/mt this week; Gulf HRW is down $11/mt. Most importantly, note that HRW, German and Russian are offered at parity for November arrival. It’s true that Russian exporters are rushing out supply in an effort to beat any potential government intervention. But this will speed the process of exhausting Russia’s exportable surplus. US export sales on Thursday will be a rather routine 12-16 million bu. But the US market is slowly positioning itself to grab a greater share of world trade in autumn/winter.
- Dec KC’s 100-day moving average rests just below today’s settlement. A secondary low is seen between $5.50-5.60. NOAA’s Sep-Nov climate forecast is out tomorrow morning. Southern Plains rainfall potential ahead of planting warrants attention.