- Markets are closed in the US (Presidents’ Day). Brazil (Carnival), and China (New Year) and consequently market news is largely absent. However, early calls for the Chicago opening are for higher levels. Extreme cold conditions across the US Plains, with temperatures down as low as zero to minus 20℉ with only 1-5” of snow cover, raises the prospect of winterkill and this will likely push wheat futures higher. Soy and corn are also anticipated to open at higher levels on a drier Argentine forecast.
- The USDA’s Outlook Forum could well provide some fresh input on Friday but we will have to wait for that!
- The Brazilian harvest is expected to gain speed later this week with farmers to deliver on forward cash contracts. Argentine crops received better than expected rainfall on the weekend, but the next 10 days (forecast) are arid into early March. The good news is that no extreme heat is expected. And somewhat drier Northern Brazilian weather is offered after Wednesday. We look for choppy trade into the USDA Outlook Forum and March option expiration on Friday. If the Argentine and S Brazilian forecasts are still dry next week, Chicago could start to add back weather premium to price and gauge coming Brazilian new crop soybean yield. Debate ranges on about the Brazilian soybean crop size with yield data to determine of the crop is 128-135 million mt. And finally, the Australians look to have another 2 million mt of wheat to sell with a record harvest of 133 million.