• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 291,500 mt, which is below estimates of 300,000-500,000 mt.
Corn: 656,200 mt, which is within estimates of 475,000-825,000 mt.
Soybeans: 552,500 mt, which is above estimates of 150,000-550,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 72,200 mt, which is below estimates of 125,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 3,600 mt, which is within estimates of zero-15,000 mt.

• US old crop corn exports were a marketing year low at only 13 million bu (330,000 mt) while old crop wheat sales were just 10.7 million bu (291,000 mt) and old crop soybeans were 1.7 million bu (46,000 mt). New crop sales were little better with corn at 12.8 million bu (325,000 mt), and soybeans at 18.6 million bu (506,000 mt). All told, total sales were around half the volume they should be at this time of year demonstrating the point we repeat ad nauseam, I.e. The US is struggling as prices rally while other key exporters are far cheaper on an FOB basis.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates amounting to  494,856 mt, which brings the season total to 974,548 mt. The season to date total is 579,514 mt ahead of last year.

• US and world weather has improved in the past week with needed drying over much of the waterlogged E Midwest while the rain chances shift NW to include the N Plains, W and N Midwest. The rain here is desired. Also, the key corn and soy areas of the N Plains of China have received needed moisture – as have most of the Canadian Prairies and Eastern Europe. Even E Australia has enjoyed an abundance of rain for their new wheat crop. This leaves only France/Spain as being in dire need of rainfall. The good news here is that the major forecast models now offer 2 chances of moisture in the next 8 days. It will be welcomed; US and world weather is improving.

• Algeria is reported to have purchased between 300,000-400,000 mt of wheat at a price of $222-224 C&F for Oct shipment, which looks to be $7-9  below replacement basis yesterday’s levels. Currently French wheat calculates into Mexico, below US – yes that is correct! Russian is cheaper than French, and their feed grade wheat is cheaper still making it a competitor to corn. In terms of more unusual markets or market anomalies, it is strongly rumoured that Dreyfus are to ship two cargoes of Argentine soybean meal into the SE US (alongside some grain) with arrivals anticipated in late Aug/early Sep and October. This news was probably the trigger for the soybean market to drop into negative territory towards the close tonight – another argument for overpriced US markets (sorry to labour the point!).

• Matif corn markets lifted higher on growing crop concerns as heat records were broken across France. Aside from some isolated thunderstorms there is little in the way of precipitation forecast for the stressed French crop. Focus on the EU corn crop at 62 million mt, and falling, together with imports at 15 million mt, and rising, places strong focus on Ukraine’s S&D. There is a strong argument for corn consumers in Europe to consider taking cover right now!