• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 762,800 mt, which is above estimates of 250,000-450,000 mt.
Corn: 1,088,400 mt, which is below estimates of 1,100,000-1,600,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1,585,000 mt, which is above estimates of 1,100,000-1,400,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 192,900 mt, which is within estimates of 150,000-450,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 15,700 mt, which is within estimates of 10,000-50,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 893689 mt, which brings the season total to 31.85 million mt. This is 246,396 mt (0.77%) behind last year.

• We have today seen Chicago markets (also mirrored in London and Paris) reacting to some degree of risk minimisation from hedge funds (Brexit) and longer range central US weather forecasts that do not foresee dire drought conditions. Funds appeared as aggressive sellers taking corn, soybeans and wheat to sharp morning losses, soybeans and meal in the lead with the grains following behind. Consequently tonight we see the technical chart analysis as somewhat more bearish although a rally into the weekend is not out of question but this will not be seen (by ourselves at the very least) as bullish right now.

• Interestingly, the US Climate Prediction Centre called for near to above normal temperatures during July and August as well as failing to offer any severe dry conditions in the same time frame. Fund managers seem to have taken this message on board today, liquidating some of their long positions and take exposure off the table.

• Brazil has announced that it would provisionally drop their restrictions to some US GMO corn to open the chance of imports. The harvest in Mato Grosso is just 10% completed, but will seriously ramp up in July. It will take at least 3 to 4 weeks to move US corn to Brazil, which means that it would arrive during the gut slot of their harvest. Most see the Governments move as too little too late with S American corn premiums in what seems to be fast retreat.

• Currently there is just not enough rain for the heart of the central US over the next 10 to 14 days to sustain the current Chicago decline. There are signs of tropical systems forming in the Gulf, but that does not occur until early July and consequently confidence is low. A secondary price rally could well unfold until better Midwest rains are confirmed by the forecasting models.