- US weekly export data has been released as follows:
- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 637,997 mt, which brings the season total to 18.8 million mt. This is 2.6 million mt (12.3%) behind last year. Barley exports for the week reached 407,630 mt, which brings the season total to 3.6 million mt.
- Egypt’s GASC tendered again for wheat with 420,000 mt being secured at a price some $2/mt below their last purchase. The price paid over the last 3½ months has trended higher, and this is the first time that trend has changed providing some welcome relief for Egypt.
- Chicago markets are minimally changed as we write this with meaningful news, once again, largely absent. Outside markets are similarly mixed, crude is a touch lower at $0.15/barrel lower and testing recent lows and the US$ is unchanged whilst the DOW Index is 15 points lower.
- NOAA’s long-term climate outlooks this morning are little changed from February. Normal to above normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation are forecast in April. The forecast for the Apr-Jun period is similar, with above normal precipitation favouring the N Plains, as well as the far Southern US (TX, LA, MS). Elsewhere normal spring climate patterns are expected. NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook includes improving soil moisture through June 1 across KS, E CO and MO, with drought to persist across the TX and OK panhandles. NOAA of course cites the lack of La Niña, and expects neutral ENSO through spring. A moderate El Niño is possible by mid to late summer.
- Corn has found support amid Wednesday’s better than expected ethanol data, and renewed interest in exports from traditional buyers following the recent break. This week’s demand reports in wheat and soybeans, however, have failed to spark any meaningful buying interest, and from the midday forecast along with NOAA’s climate updates this morning, it does appear that better moisture lies in the offing for the US Plains this spring. There’s nothing yet to alter our non-bullish viewpoint.