- We have had a confusing day with the FSA releasing incorrect Farm Program Participation data, which initially suggested that the prevent plant acres would drop 2 million from August – highly unusual to say the least. A further release informed the market that initial figures were incorrect and would be updated later in the day. The error, and subsequent correction, have left a bad taste and mistrust along with a variety of participant reaction.
- For what it is worth, this is nor the first time that the FSA have issued erroneous data. The 2008 information was incorrect and WASDE had to re-release its monthly report after the FSA reissued their figures. Last year the FSA released data early and this year, the encrypted data, was once again incorrect. Many in the trade are questioning how this could possibly be the case and asking how any reliance can be placed upon future releases.
- Regardless, the corrected data showed US corn program acres at 84.3 million acres, soybeans at 80.7 million acres and wheat at 52.3 million acres. The corn and soybean FSA program acres were very close to last year’s totals. Based on the data, Research argues that US corn acres could hold steady or rise 250,000 acres in the October report while US soybean seeding fall 250-500,000 acres. US prevented plant acres were 6.57 million acres. But as we all learned last year, FSA Program data is just a tool in the box of NASS for seeded acreage and they will continue to also rely on their own surveys.
- Black Sea fob wheat, corn and feed wheat prices are steady to weaker again this morning. Ukraine feed wheat was offered at $170/mt and bid at $168/mt with no trade. The world feed wheat market continues to decline in search of demand. Ukraine and Black Sea feed wheat is now priced at parity or a slight discount to corn – even though its feeding value holds an advantage. US Gulf corn is offered at $179/mt or at a small premium to Black Sea feed wheat/corn. With Ukraine and Brazilian corn falling in price this week, the US corn market has to become more competitive to garner new trade demand. This along with harvest pressure is lowering Chicago values.
- Midwest soybean yield reports have been mixed, and the trade appears to be waiting for additional harvest results before passing judgment on final US soybean yields. Early planting is expanding rapidly across N Brazil with estimates that more than 2 million acres have already been seeded. Adequate soil moisture favours germination. These beans will be cut in January and Chinese crushers are not chasing the recent price uplift.