• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 320,200 mt, which is within estimates of 250,000-450,000 mt.
Corn: 677,600 mt, which is below estimates of 700,000-950,000 mt.
Soybeans: 1,023,800 mt, which is within estimates of 900,000-1,300,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 108,600 mt, which is below estimates of 150,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 10,200 mt, which is within estimates of 5,000-25,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 1,105,722 mt, which is more the second largest weekly volume this season. This brings the season total to 12,488,841 mt, which is 1.409 million mt (10.14%) behind last year.

• Chicago grain prices have continued to weaken during the morning with the Argentine Peso priced at 13.90 vs. the US$, a devaluation of nearly 30%. Combined with export tax reductions of 20% in corn, 23% in wheat, and 5% in soybeans, Argentine farmers have to be smiling at the end of the week. They are showing their glee with sizeable cash grain and soybean movement this morning. Doubtless Chicago is feeling the cash connected Argentine selling on rallies.

• The strong US$ and fall in crude oil to new 2015 lows is keeping the entire commodity complex under pressure. Some commercial traders are wondering if the long only index fund holders are finally bailing on their strategy of holding commodities as a hedge against their equity holdings. Index fund holders are looking at losses of over 60% since 2013 and most have had enough! The index funds will continue to sell commodities on liquidation for tax loss purposes heading into 2016, which could pressure commodities on rallies for another two weeks.

• China priced 424,000 mt of soybeans this morning, which was reported by USDA. China has been a buyer of the soybean break which is offering some support. Additionally, China is enjoying positive crush margins and they are securing Chicago soybeans on a scale down basis. However, China has nearly booked its import needs from the US through January and will soon turn attention to Brazil which is offering soybeans below the US after early February.

• Data releases today included Informa Economics who lowered 2016 US corn acres to 88.926 million acres from 90.1 million previously and soybean acres were also reduced to 84.537 million acres from 85.3 million previously.

• Stratégie Grains forecast the 2016 soft wheat output at 143.6 million mt,a decline of some 6.4 million year on year, and the first decline since 2012. Planted area was down around 100,000 ha at 24 million and yield forecast was also reduced from last season. Export prospects were more upbeat with a forecast of 27.6 million mt, some 800,000 more than previously estimated, and this would represent a 16% year on year decline. Ending stocks, estimated at 18.4 million mt remain at substantial levels.