- Well, at last, the US has agreed to raise the federal limit taking “brinkmanship” to its extreme as national default loomed large. The US has raised its $16.7 trillion debt limit and (to coin a phrase used many times today) kicked the tin along the road until early February when many believe the same issue will rear its head once again. Regardless, we are now back on a more even keel, data will begin to flow once again and we will n to be complaining about flying blind – apart from the fact that the USDA’s October report is now formally not going to be published, but we expected that one yesterday.
- It seems that President Obama’s healthcare bill has emerged relatively unscathed and the Republican House Speaker is claimed to have said, “We fought the good fight, we just didn’t win.” Senator John McCain, the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee stated that (this was), “one of the more shameful chapters I have seen in the years I have spent here in the Senate.”
- Away from political commentary, which is not our domain, markets found some support on a weaker US$ in early trade and CBOT markets finally settled in the green with soybeans and meal finding the best gains. Reuters reports continue to supply positive harvest data with soybean harvest approaching the halfway mark and corn around a third complete. The reported yield data on both crops continues to be positive with some very good yields reported, and the trend appears to be one which suggests that the most up to date overall yield will surprise to the upside. We look forward to formal confirmation of this in due course!
- Brussels weekly export licences saw a marked reduction, for the first time this season, with 295,469 mt bringing the season total to 8.39 million mt which is 3.179 million mt ahead of last season (61%). Interestingly, EU corn imports are higher that expected at more than 400,000 mt due to the discount which Black Sea corn has in relation to mainland EU wheat. Evidentially we see May/Aug ’14 corn purchases being made by UK feed producers as corn is trading at a discount to wheat on a delivered basis.
- Some good news emanated from Ukraine today as their AgMin reported that winter planting losses would be only 0.5 million ha rather that the formerly suggested 1.5 million ha, they also added that any crop shortfalls would be in barley rather than wheat.
- In summary, we do not see major threats to supplies and continue to view price rallies as selling opportunities, our stated preference to consumers is not to chase prices higher but to exercise patience and wait for lower levels.