• HEADLINES: Risk off ahead of weekend; Plains rainfall shifted slightly northward.

• Global ag markets have been weaker by varying degrees today, with very few in the trade wanting to establish new positions. This is in part due to nearly unmanageable volatility and also due to unknowable weekend headlines in the Black Sea. FAS failed to announce any new US export sales this morning, while the trade awaits the impact of next week’s precipitation across the Southern Plains, and the winter wheat crop’s reaction to increased topsoil moisture. As of this writing, volume in May corn sits at a paltry 52,000 contracts, with just 46,000 contracts of May Chicago soybeans changing hands. We reiterate that price moves will be exacerbated by the lack of activity.

• US President Biden’s 2-hour meeting with Chinese President Xi this morning focused on the need for peace in Ukraine. China, and others, want global economic stability, but questions linger as to China’s role in the Black Sea conflict moving forward. There is no indication that US-China trade was discussed, but interaction between US and Chinese officials offer a new layer of geopolitical risk. 2022 will be a unique/historic year in global grain and oilseed markets, but for now new speculative positions are not advised.

• Spot Paris milling wheat looks to settled €5.50/mt ($0.12/bu) lower. The spot European corn market has also been surprisingly weak in recent days, with the widespread culling of animals a fear due to extremely tight feed supplies there. WTI crude is up $1.10/barrel at $104.

• Other breaking news is lacking. Choppy and volatile trading is most probable into the release of NASS’s seeding intentions and March 1 stocks data, which is now less than two weeks away. Following historic soybean yield loss in S America and the loss of Black Sea grain surpluses into at least early spring, even modest changes to perceived US supply and demand will have an incredibly outsized impact on daily/weekly price determination. We look for US seeded area to be maximised, but how the pie is split between major crops is less certain. Spot cotton has soared to $1.27/bb this week, which along with elevated spring wheat, oats, corn, sorghum and soy prices make projected US new crop acreage with any precision somewhat difficult. Volatility will be heightened further as Northern Hemisphere becomes more important very soon after the release of NASS stocks/seedings data.

• Yet, the biggest risk to global grain supply and demand in the long run is whether Black Sea exports are allowed to resume in the second half of 2022. This can be neither proven nor disproven at present, but if conflict there persists, even record N Hemisphere production will fail to match total world import demand. The importance of Ukrainian corn crop size in 2022, specifically, cannot be overstated.

• The midday GFS weather forecast is further north with Plains rainfall early next week. Needed totals of 1-2” are still forecast in KS, NE and IA, but all of OK and TX will see little/no precipitation assuming the GFS forecast verifies. HRW production is heavily concentrated in the TX/OK panhandles, and amid the return of Plains dryness in the 6-15 day period, the midday GFS forecast is viewed as moderately supportive. Very close attention will be paid to actual amounts and coverage across the Plains next Mon-Wed. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will linger across the Midwest and Delta throughout the next 5-6 days. Precipitation accumulation upward of 2-4” will favour AR, TN, KY and portions of IL and IN.

• It will be increasingly difficult to see the forest for the trees as war/weather premium is added and subtracted on a near daily basis. However, global grain and oilseed stocks will be untenably tight without record N Hemisphere production this summer and trend yields in S America next Dec-Feb. Spring/summer supply coverage is still advised on price corrections.

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