- Chicago wheat has been the talk of the day with the $7.00/bu mark being hit solidly and the resultant follow through taking gains to over 3%. This assisted European markets to higher levels. The drivers for todays gains in wheat were continued dry conditions across the Plains and further tension between Russia and Ukraine where one military death has been reported in the, so far, bloodless “takeover” of the Crimean peninsula. Black Sea region trade is “normal” according to the Ukraine AgMin, and that appears to be the case as far as corn exports for March are concerned, wheat and barley movement out of Ukraine is very limited, whether this is a result of the tensions or end of season remains to be determined.
- Chicago corn attempted higher prices on the back of wheat but closed off the highs of the day. On the back of nervousness we have seen funds adding to their already large positions, which as previously mentioned, creates additional risk in coming days and weeks should they decide to offload. This is particularly relevant as we approach the 1 March stocks and seedings report scheduled for release on 31 March.
- Soybeans also made gains, but also closed off the day’s highs. Further reports of Chinese selling of cargoes into the US have circulated although there is little substantive – at present. The Brazilian crop is progressing its harvest pace, and forecasters vary in their crop size estimates. Cordonnier’s latest number is 86 million mt, Agroconsult are at 89.2 million mt marginally down month on month from 90.8 million mt and International F C Stone are at 87.5 million mt, 3% lower than their last estimate. Correctly, CONAB have pointed out that even the lowest estimate is above last season’s 81.5 million mt harvest.