Has the downside in ag markets reached an end? With “turnaround” shifted from its usual Tuesday by a day to Wednesday all the key crops ended today’s session in positive territory. Once again though, there has been little in the way of fresh news. China have continued to sell off state soybean reserves, as they have for some time now, and estimates (for what they are worth) suggest they have a couple of months worth of stocks at their disposal. It must be remembered that there is no corroborative data to support these figures however.

It would appear that selling activity by funds has dried up today, hence the reversal of the trend of the last few days, and some fresh buying has been apparent as the market hit a technically oversold position, albeit in light volumes.

It has been reported that Russia have made an additional sale of wheat, this time 150,000 mt to Iraq for delivery in Nov ’12. Their ministry have tightened the range of their 2012 grain crop estimate to 72 to 73 million mt whilst estimating the season’s exports in a wide 10 to 14 million mt.

Early US harvest reports indicate better than anticipated yield in soybeans although, as we have previously said, more data is necessary to establish a credible pattern.

Oil World has published their S American soybean production estimates for 2012/13 as follows:
Brazil 56 mmt vs. 66.4 yoy
Argentina 56 mmt vs. 40.5 yoy
Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia also qualify for improved estimated production although overall significance is relatively small.