- News from Brazil as far as the trucker’s dispute is concerned today shows that the disorganised protest is moving closer to a disorganised ending. Protests are reported in only two states this morning, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, and soybeans are flowing to the ports of Paranaguá and Santos where vessel loadings have not been disrupted so far. Over the weekend it is reported that 530 truckloads of soybeans reached Paranaguá, whereas 900 per day would be the norm, Santos is reported to be at normal volumes and both ports are said to have sufficient stocks to outlaid for the remainder of the week.
- The Brazilian president is said to have ordered additional police and the national guard onto highways to hand out heavy fines to help prevent further blockages. 10th March marks the date on which truckers are due to meet with the government in order to negotiate over the diesel fuel tax rates although rising haulage rates in the interior of the country are helping to resolve the issue, which is truly over the falling net incomes of the truckers. It feels likely that the issue will rumble on for a while but the likelihood of serious disruption to exports seems unlikely.
- Brazil has harvested 28% of its soybean crop and it has been suggested that they will reach 40-45% by the weekend. Mato Grosso should have reached 70% by the weekend and safrinha corn planting could well be completed within 7 to 10 days. Empirical soybean yield data continues to point towards a very solid national output this year.
- Reuters has reported that Argentine officials are to keep tracks on “hoarding” of soybeans by requiring sales of “silo-bags” to be recorded and reported to tax authorities. Farmer “hoarding” has become commonplace as growers in the world’s number three soybean exporting nation hold onto stocks as a hedge against ongoing double-digit inflation. The Argentine government has long been at odds with growers, complaining that soybean hoarding is cutting into tax income, particularly relevant now as it tries to increase spending ahead of the October general election. Additionally, reporting requirements are being tightened on all grain transactions between farmers and buyers as government officials try to keep tabs on the strategically important soybean and corn crops.
- Away from S America, Australia’s ABARES has put the 2015/16 wheat crop at 24.39 million mt vs. 23.61 million mt in 2014/15, if realised this will stand as the seventh highest on record. The 3% rise in output was said to be a result of increased acreage, 13.81 million ha, and yield would likely be hampered by dry conditions. The canola (rapeseed) crop for 2015/16 was seen at 3.264 million mt vs 3.413 million mt in 2014/15.
- Early morning buying in Chicago has turned into selling with soybeans and soybean meal forming reversal patterns on the charts. The 50 day moving average in May ’15 soybeans, at $10.12 ½, is being watched very closely as a breach of the support at this level level will likely pave the way for further declines. Both corn and wheat have also declined to current chart support levels and will also have a close watch out for and breaks lower.
- EU wheat saw Paris decline €2 amid the first trading day of the new milling contract, which traded at a premium of € 4-5 to the “standard” contract. The decline came on the back of volume cash FOB offers looking for buyers, lack of demand and the US Plains winterkill story being put on the back burner.