• Today’s uplift in Matif wheat appears to stem from news of the EU’s sale of 400,000 mt of German, Lithuanian, Polish wheat to Iran providing some €4 uplift on the day and €6 in two trading days! However, according to one source the reported sale is as erroneous as yesterday’s “Russia exits the wheat export market” story that we mentioned. That said, the market has reacted in a positive way and it remains to be seen whether or not it gives back the gains in the fullness of time as and when the truth is out.

• Brussels gave a further big week of wheat exports with 488,342 mt bringing the season to 7.228 million mt, which is almost to the tonne where we were a year ago. Corn import licences for the week reached 96,000 mt, and on an October to September basis (which is the relevant cropping year) is marginally ahead of last years pace.

• US weekly export data was released as follows:

Wheat; 741,100 mt which is above estimates of 400,000-600,000 mt.
Corn; 686,000 mt which is within estimates of 650,000-900,000 mt.
Soybeans; 890,600 mt which is within estimates of 700,000-1,000,000 mt.
Soybean meal; 232,500 mt which is within estimates of 125,000-325,000 mt.
Soybean oil; 24,000 mt which is above estimates of minus 5,000 to 20,000 mt.

• CBOT markets closed higher with wheat picking up on the better than expected export data as well as a slightly weaker US$ and news of Russia’s intervention programme, which (if our data is correct) equates to about $215 FOB, some $20 below current levels, and appears to be the ONLY absolute floor in the market right now.

• Whilst we may have now established a potential low level for wheat, it is likely that corn and soybeans have yet to do so and that will be difficult until such time as the USDA’s November yield data is released.