- Last night Reuters reported on the potentially bumper Canadian wheat and canola (rapeseed) harvests just around the corner according to their poll of analysts. A record canola crop and the largest wheat crop in some 22 years was their conclusion ahead of the StatsCan forecast due Tuesday. Weather conditions have allowed crops to develop in good conditions improving the outlook for the forthcoming harvest. Average trade estimates for wheat output are at 30.4 million mt and canola at 15.5 million mt. Abundant precipitation following a crop delaying cool spell has left crops to develop outside the hottest period, leaving the potentially large harvest. The now common caveat of an early, and potentially damaging, frost has to be borne in mind until such time as the crops are fully gathered in.
- Tuesday in Chicago, in good old folk lore tradition, has displayed “turnaround Tuesday” characteristics which have bucked Monday’s price gains although only marginally. The Pro Farmer tour continues to leak positive data with positive soybean pod counts and potential corn yields. Again, as with Canada, the frost fear story remains as a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over the fast approaching harvest period.
- International soybean trade (unsurprisingly given the tight supply position) has shown a marked switch away from the US to Brazilian soybeans where it is reported that over 1 million mt has been traded in the past week to China. It is anticipated that Brazil will account for a larger tonnage than in previous years given their latest crop and competitive pricing.
- Additional information is thin on the ground, EU wheat values have not matched the jump in US prices presumably being capped by Black Sea sellers and harvest completion in France although rains have delayed work in German and central regions. On a positive note, quality concerns appear to have moved to there sidelines for now although premiums for quality samples appear to remain towards the higher end of the spectrum for the time being.