- Lower has been today’s trade in Chicago today with fresh contract lows being seen in new crop corn, wheat and soybean futures. End users are finding prices attractive and using cheaper levels to fix prices whilst farmers are becoming somewhat reluctant to make sales at these levels. It seems that global wheat prices are easing as fund selling picks up on the back of Black Sea exporters searching for new demand.
- Many are asking when the funds will finish their soy selling as this may give a clue to a market low. China is starting to show an increased level of interest at these new lower levels. The latest Chinese import estimates show China’s soybean import volumes for 2015/16 to be 83.76 million mt rising to 85 million mt in 2016/17. For comparison purposes the USDA’s 2016/17 number is 87 million mt. The imponderable is that China will not issue opening or ending stock numbers, which makes the S&D calculation somewhat impossible.
- Nov ’16 soybeans closing below $10.21/bu suggests downside risk exists and next support at $9.85 whilst Dec ’16 corn closing below $4.46 points to lows around $4.35. Wheat futures are clearly oversold at present but pressure remains. Fund liquidation in soybeans remains the key driver at present although US export demand will likely increase as prices ease.
- Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 805,786 mt, which brings the season total to 1,035,593 mt. This is 61,045 mt (6.26%) ahead of last year. Barley export certificates for the week were 190,672 mt bringing the season total to 617,564 mt some 47.5% behind last season.