- Chicago markets are mixed today with some upside evident. The wheat market is struggling amid rain forecasts for the Plains and the (dire) need for fob prices to become competitive in the global export market.
- US growers are pushing harvest pace as fast as possible to get ahead of the forecast rain and we understand yields to continue above farmer’s expectations in both corn and soybeans, but the market is already well aware of this. There is now a built in expectation of yield increase in the next USDA update scheduled for 10 November. However, a slowdown in farmer selling has not been factored in and this might put a spanner in the works.
- China is actively securing US soybeans with two more cargoes announced today, November and December shipments are their current focus. There seems to be evidence that Government stockpiles are being replenished whilst prices are sub $9.00/bu, alternatively growing livestock numbers that will require feeding could be the reason and we have no way of knowing, or finding out, which is correct!
- Russia’s IKAR has reported their winter grain to be 89% planted despite some dryness induced delays especially in the South, Krasnodar, Rostov and Volgograd.
- In Ukraine, the AgMin expects the 2016 wheat area to be 5.5 million ha, down from 6.2 previously due to dry conditions. They are also flagging reduced yield potential, which needs to be watched going forward.