• Following on from yesterday we can report that China is supposedly selling significant quantities of state owned soybean stocks to crushers to assist depleted supplies caused by Brazilian port congestion and associated shipment delays. Sales from state reserves will need to be replaced in due course, presumably when prices have eased – whenever that may be!

• Interestingly, ahead of the eagerly anticipated USDA report, we are starting to see a plethora of acreage and output forecasts, the latest Reuters reported farm survey talks of the largest corn area since 1936 at 97.43 million acres. The same survey also reports intentions to plant a record soybean acreage at 79.09 million acres, a 2.5% increase from last year. Clearly, in the wake of stocks which are close to record lows the need to rebuild stocks has never been stronger. For survey numbers to become reality it is important for both prices and weather to play their part in the equation, and it is entirely possible that wheat could well lose out in the overall scheme of things.

• The International Grains Council (IGC) have put forward their view that world wheat output will rise in 2013/14 to a four year high with a corresponding increases in end stocks of 3 million mt, this number is a drop in the ocean compared with the 20 million mt decline seen in 2012/13.

• The UK is forecast to return to cold and wintery conditions tomorrow with significant snowfall predicted for large swathes of the country further adding to the gloomy outlook for autumn sown crops and further delaying spring sowing. The ongoing cold also leaves us pessimistic as far as the prospect of early harvest is concerned.

• The US it would seem is similarly experiencing frost, snow and below average temperatures, which are deepening frozen soil conditions rather than bringing on the spring thaw. These conditions can be a mixed blessing, in some areas the increased snow cover could well add to overall precipitation totals aiding eventual crop development, in others spring sowing delays may detract from overall output, As the saying goes, “you pay your money, and take your choice!”

• US weekly exports were reported as follows:

Wheat: 573,300 mt which was within estimates of 550,000 to 1.12 million mt
Corn: 275,500 mt which was within estimates of 50,000 to 650,000 mt
Soybeans; 341,900 mt which was below estimates of 450,000 to 1 million mt
Soybean meal: 143,400 mt which was above estimates of 40,000 to 120,000 mt
Soybean Oil: 19,600 mt which was above estimates of zero to 15,000 mt