- Chicago soybeans, corn and wheat are all having an “up day” today on what seems to be thin volume trade. London and Paris markets have followed higher.
- It appears that cash corn and soybean basis levels in the Midwest are rising, and sharply; crushers/exporters are fighting for the few soybeans that ARE moving. As harvest draws to an end, end users are beginning to realise that cash movement has been lower than previously thought and if nearby supplies are to be secured then paying up is the way to do so. The cash market is leading Chicago, particularly as far as corn and soybeans are concerned.
- History would suggest that the US farmer, once his crop is harvested and in safe storage, is reluctant to release supplies until after Thanksgiving. We could well be seeing a bottom forming in these markets and it will be very important to keep a close eye on prices in the next few days. The big picture from a global perspective remains bearish, BUT with global prices already historically cheap and we are starting to see demand being uncovered at these relatively low levels. A post-harvest price rally should not be ruled out, particularly if farm selling remains restricted and cash prices lead the way.
- In other news today Brazil’s AgroConsult estimate 2015/16 soybean output at 100.6 million mt, up from 92.6 million mt year on year. The crop is 14% planted so far, up from 11% year on year and improved rainfall frequency is expected to speed planting pace.
- Finally it was reported that Bangladesh has rejected another 20,000 mt cargo of French wheat due to poor quality!