• HEADLINES: Chicago finds support amid rising equity market, reversal in US$.

• Chicago futures have reversed early weakness amid another tranche of supportive macro input and as US end users remain active in absorbing breaks. The Dow at midday is up 375 points as the market continues its debate over the extent of Fed hawkishness. Earnings reports in recent days confirm strong US consumer spending, and while debt is concerning, it is the timing of economic contraction that remains unknown. The US$ has fallen sharply. Crude is up $0.30/barrel at $84.80.

• Other breaking news is lacking. Coming rainfall in Argentina is unlikely to materially improve wheat yield potential there amid a complete lack of subsoil moisture currently. An unrelenting pattern of rainfall is offered to South Australia and New South Wales into early Nov.

• Wheat will remain especially sensitive to changes in macro sentiment given managed funds’ current net short position in Chicago and as there is still no concrete guidance on whether the Black Sea export corridor will be extended. Turkish President Erdogan today is optimistic that the deal will be renewed in November, but until it is signed uncertainty prevails. Turkey purchased 470,000 mt of likely Black Sea origin this morning.

• As has been the case since February, it is vessel/vessel insurance companies that will in large part determine the intensity at which Black Sea wheat and corn find the global market. Vessel owners in the days/weeks ahead must decide whether enter the region without knowing the corridor will remain in place beyond Nov 22. All sides of the hope for clarity well before the deal expires.

• Market choppiness is most probable into late year. It is tough to be overly fearful about supplies nearby as the US harvest will continues its rapid advance. We estimate that soybean harvesting on Sunday will be 75-80% complete, with corn harvesting to reach 55-58% finished. The pipeline will be increasingly filled. This supply will be absorbed by feed and industrial sectors, but river market stocks will be rising indefinitely amid river logistics issues. The market will be defined by an ongoing tug of war between domestic processors and exporters.

• FAS’s daily reporting system was void of new US export demand this morning. CIF corn and soy basis at the Gulf is up another $0.15-0.20/bu for Oct-Nov.

• An historically shallow Mississippi River will continue to keep US corn/wheat non-competitive in the world market and further incentivise soy importers to defer purchases to S American in late Jan/Feb. This is a big deal in the long run, and a lasting period of soaking rain is needed.

• The midday US GFS weather forecast is consistent with the morning release in projecting rainfall of 1-2” across OK, E KS, MO and IL. The heart of the HRW misses out. A pattern of dryness resumes in all areas Oct 27-Nov 5.

• The midday S American GFS weather forecast is wetter in Cordoba Argentina, with totals there into next Wed-Thurs pegged at 2.0-2.5”. A nice mix of rain/sun continues in Central Brazil.

• Cross currents include continued uncertainty over US yield and Black Sea exports, profitable domestic margins but pitiful grain export demand, and a probable recession globally in 2023. Markets are stuck in the near-term, but unlike the bull market to date, the lack of a demand driver must be acknowledged.

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