- Today’s Chicago markets started higher but turned lower in somewhat more active volume in the grains, corn and wheat. The soybean complex is seeing a reduced volume as traders vacillate over N Brazilian weather forecasts and exactly how much January rain will materialise. It seems that if grain prices are to move lower, and convincingly, we will need to see the rainfall that N Brazil needs.
- Farmer selling has been evident in the US today and this has reflected in Chicago prices this afternoon, and it feels somewhat bearish at this time. As we suggested yesterday, a loss of 1-3 million mt of soybean output in Mato Grosso/Goias does not seem to be hitting the market adversely at this time.
- Brazilian corn export volume commitments have reached a record 33.8 million mt and look likely to exceed 34.5 million in the crop year. Continued offers from both Brazil and Argentina look as if they will certainly “dent” US export prospects in nQ1 2016. The Dec-Mar US export window is being squeezed and reducing as each day passes and S American fob offers remain below US Gulf levels. US corn end stocks should be revised higher in the January USDA report.