22 October 2015

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  • The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 359,200 mt, which is within estimates of 300,000-500,000 mt.
Corn: 248,000 mt, which is below estimates of 450,000-650,000 mt.
Soybeans: 2,032,400 mt, which is above estimates of 1,200,000-1,800,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 269,100 mt, which is within estimates of 150,000-300,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 24,800 mt, which is within estimates of 10,000-60,000 mt.

  • US export sales year to date are down by 17% (92 million bu) for wheat, 35% (251 million bu) for corn and 22% (272 million bu) for soybeans. It is difficult to envisage any lasting bullishness until export pace plays catch up, and that will not happen until prices become more competitive.
  • Brussels has issued the lowest weekly wheat export certificates in seven weeks amounting to just 376,969 mt. This brings the season total to 7,173,735 mt, which is 1,746,723 mt (19.58%) behind last year.
  • Chicago’s early price upside moves that followed on from yesterday have been curtailed (with half an hour or so to go) as wheat, corn and soybeans are all in negative territory. US export data was not viewed as supportive despite ongoing Chinese soybean purchases being reported. The underlying fact that US corn and wheat prices remain non-competitive when compared with other exporting regions (S America and Black Sea) weighs on prices and further US sales will be hard won.
  • The ECB (European Central Bank) maintained yet another month of unchanged interest rates with the potential for further QE looking forward. Unsurprisingly the US$ was buoyed up as were equity markets both sides of the “pond”. If the US Fed raises rates in December (as is being hinted) we will likely see further US$ strength and a rally into year-end.
  • This coming Sunday sees Argentina’s presidential election, which could possibly help their farmers become more competitive in the world market. It is possible that the election will be a non-event, but a change in the export tax position in early 2016 could well be on the cards – watch this space.