- Today has seen markets somewhat mixed, but as we approach the close in Chicago front month soybeans (May ’14) is close to session lows with close to another 1% decline and nearby soybean meal is also showing losses. The grains are higher, rebounding from yesterday gaining on wet weather delaying planting and not enough in the western Plains – when will they make up their minds?
- Corn planting is reported to be active across key regions, and we know how they can cover the acres when conditions are right. Some key central Illinois counties are reported to be as much as 50% planted. We could well see a surprise in next week’s seeding report, some suggesting as much as 20% of the corn acres could be in the ground.
- The trade is “counting” cargoes to see whether imports of soybeans and meal are sufficient to offset the US tightness. Two Brazilian soybean boats have arrived and another six are known to be en route, a minimum 240,000 mt of soybean meal has been sold into the US. The discounted (and heavily so) Chinese offers by panicked crushers who are unable to open letters of credit would suggest further sizeable tonnages of soybeans will be available at cheap price levels (relatively speaking) not to mention soybean meal, all of which suggests that the worst of the tightness may well be behind us. The front month Chicago pricing relative to deferred months today also suggests that this may be the case.
- Western Europe is looking pretty good,weather wise, with the exception of the Iberian peninsula and the Black Sea regions could use additional rain right now. Fortunately, for now, the forecasts include precipitation for much of the area with the exception of Ukraine.
- Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange forecast the 2013/14 soybean crop at 54.9 million mt, an increase from their 54.7 million mt last forecast.Recent concerns over yield following heavy rains in early April, and some flooding, are being eased by better than predicted yields in Cordoba. The 2013/14 corn harvest was also increased at 23 million mt, an increase from last month’s figure of 22.7 million mt.