• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat; 952,600 mt which is above estimates of 300,000-600,000 mt.
Corn; 446,100 mt which is within estimates of 200,000-500,000 mt.
Soybeans; 1,022,400 mt which is above estimates of 350,000-500,000 mt.
Soybean Meal; 256,600 mt which is above estimates of 50,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean Oil; 9,600 mt which is within estimates of zero to 15,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates for 273,042 mt, which brings the season total to 19,449,671 mt. This is above last year by 5.492 million mt (39.4%).

• The strike by port workers in Argentina’s Rosario, which started on Monday, looks likely to extend into next week. Whilst strikes in the country are far from uncommon, they are usually resolved quite quickly and this interruption to exports will be unwelcome at this key point in the season.

• Thursday has seen a robust move higher in wheat, corn and the soy complex both in Chicago and in Europe with quote boards displaying a sharp green colour. Early short covering of soybeans and meal, reportedly by Chinese buyers, triggered gains which appear to have followed through all day. Fund short covering in wheat added support and corn appears to have been dragged along for the ride. Stronger than estimated US export sales in wheat,soybeans and soybean meal added to the firm tone. However, the detail in the exports is important, old crop sales of 131,200 mt are significant in the light of the tightness in the US soybean and meal balance sheet. There are reports of further S American soybean cargoes loading for the US, which emphasises this point.

• Our view on matters remains pretty much unchanged, tight old crop supplies can result (and have resulted) in upward price moves. These moves have lent support to new crop prices which have risen, and we see these moves as selling opportunities rather than a market to chase higher at this time.