- Top of the weekend news has to be that Conservative opposition challenger Mauricio Macri won Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday, bringing to an end more than a decade of free-spending leftist populism with a promise to open up the ailing economy to investors. Outgoing President Fernandez’s style and policies appear to have worn thin with the electorate who have backed Macri’s pledges to liberalise and stamp out corruption. How this pans out will be interesting to watch in coming weeks and months.
- Chicago markets started the day somewhat lower on the Argentine news as well as beneficial rain and snow across parts of the US, which is improving soil moisture levels as crop dormancy approaches. Funds were once again sellers, but have this afternoon come back to take cover amid a lack of concrete news from S America. There are suggestions that there may be a one month period of zero percent soybean export taxes with month two at 15% followed by a return to 33%. This would suggest an avalanche of supplies hitting the market in an extremely short period of time with all that comes with such a move – lower prices! The time frame for large volumes to hit the market is realistically governed by such issues as freight availability and internal logistics, but the suggestion of significant stock movement was enough to move the market in early trade.
- Tension is once again growing between Russia and Ukraine as power lines to Crimea were blown up over the weekend and it is not beyond comprehension to believe that further retaliation could include ports and grain shipments. With markets already nervous it would not take much to prompt additional risk premium to be injected into current low prices.