- The major news item today is a continuation of the bird flu story in China where the H7N9 variant is now said to have infected 108 people and killed 22. According to the WHO the new strain is “one of the most lethal” viruses although human to human transmission has not, as yet, been proven. Reports of a Taiwanese traveller returning home after visiting China testing positive for the virus were circulating yesterday. This is the first reported case of the infection outside mainland China. Concern over a further mutation of the virus which would allow human to human spread is high.
- Reuters report that the Ukraine has lifted its restrictions on wheat exports, imposed last year following drought reduced harvests, with immediate effect. However, it is anticipated that export volumes will be limited to around 200,000 mt, of which some 80,000 mt are already at ports as domestic price levels being paid by flour millers are better than bids by exporters. The export cap was imposed in the light of a sub 16 million mt harvest in the nation, which consumes around 12 million mt. Ministry data shows export volumes have reached close to 6.5 million mt this season; improved conditions so far have led to crop forecasters predicting the coming wheat crop at about 20 million mt.
- In Canada the latest planting intentions survey by StatsCan indicates a reduced canola (rapeseed) acreage, the first such drop since 2006. The 11.1% reduction in canola was largely to the benefit of increased wheat acres, which were shown by the survey to be increased by 12.3%. However, a cautionary note should be sounded, extensive late snow cover across much of the country could well provide a catalyst for plans to change.
- Once again freezing conditions are adding to hard red wheat crop stress as temperatures drop to minus 7℃ (18℉). The potential for yield loss as a result of multiple such freezes is high; depending upon location across such a wide growing area the crop is in various growth stages and estimates for overall losses cover a broad range. Regardless of estimates, one thing appears true, and that is that losses will be higher than normal.