• HEADLINES: US cash soymeal market gains on exporter demand; Rumours Brazil secures US HRW wheat; GFS Russian weather forecast is dry into June 5.

• Midday Chicago values are mixed with soymeal/KC wheat being the upside price leaders while soymeal/corn sag. The volume of trade has been better than expected on active KC/xcg wheat spreading and crush margins expanding. Cash soymeal basis continues to rally as short bought exporters cover their needs in the cash market. Also, there are rumours that Brazil has secured 3-5 cargoes of US HRW wheat for early autumn. The Brazilian flooding across RGDS will have a lasting impact on Brazil’s 2025 wheat crop. We look for a mixed close with traders discussing whether another strong rally unfolds in world wheat on Monday/Tuesday if the Russian weather forecast stays dry. Wheat continues to add weather premium to prices due to a shrinking Russian wheat crop. Chicago appears to be trading a Russian wheat crop of 81-82.5 million mt today. A crop below 80 million is possible should the drought extend into mid-June. The midday GFS forecast maintains an arid flow across Russian winter wheat areas into June 3.

• The USDA did not announce any daily sales which argues that China did not secure the 5-8 cargoes that were rumoured on Tuesday. We understand that China could have secured only 1-2 US soybean cargoes this week. The price rally is not aiding US exports as importers are unwilling to chase valuations.

• Chicago brokers estimate that managed money has bought 3,600 contracts of soymeal, 4,100 contracts of soybeans, and 3,400 contracts of wheat. Funds are flat in corn while selling 1,800 contracts of soyoil.

• July KC wheat futures have gained 15 cents on July Chicago wheat in the past 2 sessions amid rumours of Brazilian new crop demand. We hear that Brazil has secured 3-5 cargoes of US HRW wheat for September/October at $297/mt. Argentine wheat is offered at $290/mt for July, with no offers for September/October. Brazil has a clear need for HRW wheat imports amid acute RGDS/Santa Caterina flooding, but we would expect that Argentine new crop supplies that will be available in November will fill any future Brazilian import need. We doubt that Brazilian interest for US HRW wheat will being sustained.

• The US cash soymeal market is exceptionally tight with an active US export program competing with strong domestic demand and a slowdown in the US crush pace. Cash soymeal basis has gained $14-16/ton this week with cash crush margins back above $1.00/bu. Board crush is worked up to its best levels in months above $0.90/bu. Spot Argentine soymeal is offered at $16/mt over July with Brazilian 48% offered at $12/mt over and no US Gulf offers for June/July.

• The midday GSF weather forecast is slightly drier across the Northern Plains and the South-Central US. Eastern Midwest farmers scored solid planting progress this week and have either finished or nearly finished corn and soybean seeding. Showers are falling across S WI/N IL which is perfect timing for recently seeded crops. Following several rounds of rain on the weekend, a 5-6 day stretch of dry weather occurs next week. A new storm system is forecast for early June, but by then the market will see rain as helpful to yield. No extreme heat is forecast for the next 2 weeks.

• Paris wheat futures will be open on Monday and their direction will decide Monday evening’s Chicago opening. If the extended range Black Sea weather forecast is correct, a new push to the upside should occur early next week which allows corn/soy futures to follow. We would maintain that a seasonal top in wheat should be set by June 7 with corn/soy following. US weather is improving with 85-87% of the corn and 65-70% of the soybeans now seeded. Now  “rain makes grain” and the bulls will need a new period of adverse weather to sustain the rally.

To download our weekly update as a PDF file please click on the link below: