- CBOT wheat, at a $2.10 premium to corn (basis Dec ’13) seems a bit strong to us, but that is where it closed tonight as corn closed lower and wheat, along with soybeans and meal, closed a touch higher. The overnight crop ratings, which showed corn gaining 2% in the good/excellent category (to 55%) and soybeans remained unchanged at 50%. Add the crop rating to encouraging yield data and we see selling pressure although the 13 August low $4.45¾ (again basis Dec ’13 contract) has still not been breached – yet!
- Corn harvest in the US is close to 10% and gathering pace, and soybean harvest is only just getting going but is expected to pick up speed this week if weather remains favourable.
- Other news is thin on the ground again, it is expected that Russia will begin its intervention purchasing, supporting domestic values and potentially taking them out of their competitive export position.
- In the latest wheat tender, this time by Iraq, offers were in a massive range; from $310 (Ukraine) to $395 (US) on a C&F basis. This range highlights the competitive (or not!) nature of global trade today.