• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat 306,300 mt; which is below estimates of 600,000-1 million mt
Corn 335,900 mt; which is below estimates of 350,000-700,000 mt
Soybeans 422,200 mt; 700,000-950,000 mt
Soybean meal 218,600 mt; which is below estimates of 120,000-380,000
Soybean Oil 1,700 mt; which is below estimates of zero – 15,000 mt

• The figures can only be described as disappointing, as evidenced by the big “miss” from estimated levels across all products. It is possible that the ever increasing cash basis levels, particularly in soybeans, which have hit the figures. It is reported that levels as high as $1.10 over July futures has been paid, a further increase on last week’s levels. Tight supplies and reluctant sellers have combined to create the tightening cash premiums.

• Global weather news leaves us believing that Russia and Ukraine are in need of rain soon if soil moisture issues are to be avoided and crop output compromised. Australia also features with similar dry conditions and a need for timely rains.

• The new crop premium which London wheat holds above the MATIF, when adjusted back to Sterling, has risen again today. March and May 2014 contracts are sitting at £11.78 and £11.29 respectively whilst the Nov ’13 and Jan ’14 contracts hold a smaller premium at £5.70 and £6.12. This is a reflection of the likely reduced output in the UK for 2013/14 and the potential that net imports will continue to be the order of the day for a further year.

• Finally, UK GDP figures, released today by the Office for National Statistics, show that we have avoided a triple dip recession with a growth rate for Q1 2013 at 0.3%; this figure being just sufficient to reverse the fall in Q4 2012. Growth over the 12 month period to March 2013 reached a staggering 0.6% growth. Maybe we should now look to see the UK’s AAA rating restored by the end of next week!