- Earlier in the week we mentioned the El Niño phenomenon, for the probably the first time this season, and it appears that it is gathering considerable momentum in the equatorial Pacific and should be in “full bloom” by late summer. There have been 9 other US growing years (excluding last year since El Niño faded) that US crops developed during an El Niño cycle. The chart to the below reflects corn and soybean yields from those El Niño growing seasons. Note that the biggest yield declines occurred in 1981 in corn and 2002 in both corn and soybeans – that posted yield losses of 5-6%. All other years posted yield gains of 1-14% with a record corn yield set in 2004. The point is that El Niño years do not always produce high or record yields, but that the chances of a dire drought occurring are substantially reduced. The odds are low that the 2015 US corn yield will drop below 160 bu/acre thanks to El Niño.
