• Interestingly today we saw Chicago markets turn lower following what was seen as supportive USDA seeding estimates. The market decided to focus upon the WASDE price forecasts instead, which were a season cash average of $4.20 in wheat (down $0.80/bu), $3.45 in corn (down $0.15/bu) and $8.50 in soybeans (down $0.30/bu). Prices are clearly well below last season and 2016 US farm income is expected to decline for the third consecutive year – a first.

• For the record, the USDA’s 2016 area figures came in as follows:

Wheat 51 million acres, below estimates of 52.411 and down from 54.644 year on year.
Corn 90 million acres, above estimates of 89.648 and up from 87.999 year on year.
Soybeans 82.5 million acres, below estimates of 83.302 and down from 82.65 year on year.

• Egypt’s GASC secured 300,000 mt of wheat in an overnight tender for late March/April shipment. The purchase included 60,000 mt of French, Argentine and Ukraine wheat (each), and 120,000 mt of Romanian wheat. The French wheat was sold at $175/mt basis fob, which is some $11/mt above replacement. Sellers appear to be more willing to take on the risk of ergot fungus and late payment as this may be one of the last tenders by Egypt in the 2015/16 crop year as their new crop harvest commences in April.

• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 486,200 mt, which is above estimates of 200,000-400,000 mt.
Corn: 1,066,300 mt, which is within estimates of 700,000-1,200,000 mt.
Soybeans: 328,600 mt, which is within estimates of 300,000-700,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 172,600 mt, which is within estimates of 100,000-250,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 3,200 mt, which is below estimates of 5,000-20,000 mt.

• Brussels has issued weekly wheat export certificates totalling 800,941 mt, which brings the season total to 19,215,804 mt. This is 1,878,151 mt (8.9%) behind last year.

• The bearish market momentum has had little in the way of interruption today, and this does not pave the way for the bull’s immediate return. Our take on price moves is that there is little to suggest corn can make more than maybe 15 cents upturn at this time, unless we see adverse weather conditions arrive to upset things. We would also question whether, or not, the market has fully digested the potential of S American crops at this time as well as what seems to be the largely forgotten issue of slowing (maybe sharply so) US soybean sales and exports, which would be a majorly bearish input as and when digested.