- It has been another day of heavy losses across agri markets with soybeans losing over 2.5% and soybean meal in excess of 4% in near positions. Losses across the grains were contained to less than 1% but a wall of red prices was clear at the close of business in Chicago. Wheat in both Paris and London also fell as did the MATIF rapeseed market. CBOT Aug ’13 soybean meal closed on its limit down for the second successive day signalling a lack of buyers as the remaining long holders look (vainly) for a buyer. As we reported yesterday, cash basis levels have fallen sharply in the aftermath of consumers stepping into the market place taking cover leaving sellers struggling to find a home for their remaining old crop supplies.
- Technical pictures across soybeans, corn and wheat look pretty bearish with a clear argument for further significant price declines, which we always support if the fundamental picture is in agreement, which it appears to be right now. Weather patterns appear to be non-threatening with corn pollination temperatures favourable and a showery precipitation picture in the forecasts through into the first ten days of August. We will look for price support levels to come under pressure next week when trading resumes, tomorrow (Friday) could show something of a “|profit taking” bounce, which we would view as a further selling opportunity as things stand right now.
- The Commodity Weather Group (CWG) in the US has forecast 2013 corn yields even above the USDA’s latest 156.5 bu/acre at 159.5 bu/acre. This compares with last season’s drought ravaged 123.4 bu/acre.
- Brussels granted wheat export licences totalling 485.295 mt, which brings the season total to 1.128 million mt, which is close to 400,000 mt ahead of this time last year.
- The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:
Wheat; 661,400 mt which is above estimates of 400,000-600,000 mt.
Corn; 489,900 mt which is below estimates of 700,000-1 million mt.
Soybeans; 793,500 mt which is above estimates of 400,000-650,000 mt.
Soybean Meal; 329,600 mt which is above estimates of 100,000-200,000 mt.
Soybean Oil; 3,200 mt which is within estimates of zero to 20,000 mt.