- Chicago markets have displayed a slightly weaker tone in the grains today with soybeans (and products) making only slight gains. It appears that markets are slow with the stocks and seedings report looming on the horizon (Monday). Unsurprisingly there are few who wish to have significant exposure ahead of the report and we would expect to see further liquidation of positions before publication.
- Reports continue to circulate over the number of Brazilian soybean cargoes which have been sold by China into the US. The number is debatable but about half a million mt is widely discussed – so far.
- Informa Economics, the private analysts, today released their estimated US planting acreages, which did little, if anything, to the market. Soybean acres were reduced to 81.204 million acres, down from 81.264 million. Corn acres were 93.029 million, down from 93.319 million. Spring wheat plantings, excluding durum, were forecast at 12.298, an increase from 12.098 million. Given the relatively small changes it is little surprise that market impact was minimal.
- Following hot in the footsteps of the turmoil in Ukraine, we hear from AgroConsult that a new record has been reached for export volumes with more than 25.1 million mt of grain and 2 million mt sunflower seed oil leaving the country in the July to March period. In 2012/13 the same period grain export figure, for comparison purposes, was 17.5 million mt. Despite the recent troubles it is estimated that over 2 million mt of grain has been exported in the first 24 days of March. Of this figure only 157,000 mt is wheat but 1.85 million mt is corn, reinforcing the nation’s status as a (significant) exporter of corn. Clearly, it is important not only to Ukraine, but also to importing nations, that the recent territorial dispute with Russia is not permitted to interfere with crop production or exportability.
- SovEcon reported that 2014/15 grain exports will be 22 million mt, a reduction from an expected figure of 14.1 million mt in the current marketing year to end June 2014. In the same release they increased their estimate of 2014 grain output to 88 million mt, a 2 million mt increase from their last estimate, but lower that 2013, which saw a grain harvest of 92 million mt. SovEcon did not break out separate figures for wheat or wheat exports.
- Reuters report on further rejections of US corn by China, again for non-approved GM contamination with MIR 162. The total tonnage rejected by China in five months stands at 908,800 mt according to the news agency. Anticipation of sales of domestic stocks from state reserves or cheaper supplies from Ukraine are also a likely driver of the latest rejections. The country is reported to hold some 90 million mt of corn in national stockpiles, and is expected to release some of this for sale before long.