- CBOT markets closed with soybeans, meal and wheat all lower and corn just in positive territory after a day of mixed fortunes trading either side of unchanged in a choppy session. The lid was kept on soybean selling by news that Brazil’s truck drivers are to meet with the government tomorrow and the risk of roadblocks has once again hit the headlines. The trucker’s demands are pretty much unchanged, and it feels as if the government wants to drag negotiations into late spring, as by then much of the soybean and corn crops will be transported to end users and the impact of militancy will be reduced. The decline in wheat was prompted by improved northern hemisphere weather prospects. Whilst confirmation of rain across the US Plains is needed the forecasting models appear to have good agreement; the Black Sea forecast calls for soaking rains across the whole of Ukraine as well as south and west Russia in the coming 3 to 10 days.Further rains are also forecast across central Ukraine and central Russia in the 11 to 15 day time frame.
- Generally in today’s mixed trade it appears clear that traders are unwilling to embrace fresh risk ahead of the upcoming USDA report.
- In other news Brazil’s AgroConsult has estimated the 2014/14 soybean crop at 95.8 million mt, which is 1.1 million mt above their last forecast. They also put the corn crop at 79.4 million mt, an increase of 400,000 mt on their previous estimate. Early season Brazilian soybean exports (Jan to March) are suggested to be below last season’s 10.4 million mt, possibly below 6 million mt. The delays in harvest and trucker’s dispute are blamed (somewhat unfairly in our view); our suggestions point to a slow down in Chinese trade compared with last season. Abiove continue to see good prospects for the season with a target of 48 million mt, which is some 5% up year on year. Remaining in S America, the Argentine soybean harvest is reported to be 5% complete with yields reportedly “high”.
- Finally, Russia’s AgMin are now suggesting winterkill losses will be less than the 21% previously suggested, their latest figure stands at 16.8%, and supports their latest 100 million mt all grain harvest figure.