- We move another day closer to Thursday’s influential stocks and planting report with weather attempting to delay plantings in the US. The implication of delayed corn planting is that it defers the pollination phase until the hotter weather and, as we saw last year, damage to output can be serious if temperatures remain in the 100℉ or higher zone.
- EU weather also remains in the headlines with northern and central Europe receiving cold temperatures and sufficient moisture in the form of rain, hail or snow to create waterlogged conditions sufficient to both delay plantings and also harvest. Added to the huge pace of exports and consequent tightening end season stocks it looks as if Europe is heading towards an increasingly squeezed position.
- In a semi comical moment we heard that the Brazilian judiciary were attempting to impose fines upon truckers for illegal parking on the highway, when in reality they are queuing to deliver their consignments of soybeans into the well documented congested port zones. The fact that this is really happening makes it “semi” rather than “totally” comical! However, on a more serious note, the issue is adding further pressure to an extremely pressured situation and momentum back to US supplies is growing. This, added to the possibility of a bullish report on Thursday, could well provide strong upside price movements, which will not have much of a time related relief valve given the Easter weekend break.
- In other news, Oil World today reported their latest forecasts with the Argentine soybean crop at 48.5 million mt, which is reduced from 50 million mt a month ago (but still up from 39.7 last year). The Brazilian crop was forecast at 81.3 million mt, down 700,000 mt last month, but an improvement on last year’s 66.4 million mt. To contrast this, AgroConsult reported their outlook for the Brazilian crop at 84.4 million mt, which is 200,000 mt up on their last month’s estimate.