- Ukraine’s 2014 grain harvest is likely to fall by 9% to 57.3 million mt, a decline from approximately 63 million mt in 2013, according to analysts APK Inform. A reduction in planted area due to capped funding from banks was cited as key to the reduction. Wheat was estimated at 19.2 million mt against 22.3 million mt in 2013 and corn was forecast at 29 million mt versus 30.9 last year they said. The Crimean peninsula was excluded from output following the recent Russian seizure. Spring sowing has progressed well with over half the expected area now planted although some expect as much as 20% to remain unplanted due to lack of financing.
- In almost the same breath, Russia expect Crimean accession to boost their grain output by as much as 2 million mt according to their Agriculture Minister. 2013 grain output was stated at 92.4 million mt, and 2014 was estimated to be 97 million mt in addition to that of Crimea. Seemingly Ukraine’s loss is Russia’s gain!
- Markets today have displayed further weakness in the grains, particularly wheat where Chicago is down 1.5% and London down by more than 1%. Corn too is weaker whilst soybeans and meal are just in positive territory. CBOT volumes are reported to be low and it is reported that EU soybean meal consumers are pricing ahead of Monday’s report, particularly in S American product.