We return to a new week, after the US’s Thanksgiving break, to markets which have attempted (with little vigour) to rally; but; have managed to stay in positive territory throughout the session. Some technical levels (corn in particular) have provided support via 50 day moving averages and medium term downtrends which are now acting as supportive price levels at which traders are happy to go long in search of higher numbers. Will they hold? Will prices advance throughout the remainder of the week? Key questions which remain to be answered.

The spillover from last week’s export figures (corn and soy in particular) helped the day get off to a positive start, and the news from Australia of poor protein levels in recently harvested wheat assisted the tone. To this we can add the poor prospects for Argentine output and the ongoing dry US Plains issues which make wheat look less than exciting. All in all, the prognosis going forward does not look fantastic.

At home in the UK we are being bombarded with news (as well as the physical symptoms) of extreme wet weather which adds to saturated ground creating floods in many areas and making field work impossible. For the record we are looking at over 200 flood warnings and 300 flood alerts in existence right now, rainfall in excess of two inches in 24 hours being common across much of the country and many communities suffering as a consequence. It appears that only around 70% of planned winter crops are in the ground right now, in a “normal” year this would be 100%.

The upshot of these circumstances are that we will either see an extremely late winter planting or a change to spring sown crops. Either way, the effect will be reduced output in an already pressured supply situation. The early setback to 2013 UK harvest prospects is pushing some consumers into “buy” mode with mainland EU supplies once again looking competitive and potentially filling the gap.

There appears to be little, if anything, on the horizon which could be labelled “good news” in the grain and feed markets right now.