Commodities continue to sell off as Greece and Spain see renewed civil disobedience and feelings that global economies are weakening rather tan strengthening.
The continued selloff has left commodities very much oversold from a technical perspective but the weight of the fund longs which have been dumped have pushed markets to levels which do feel overdone right now. Friday’s report will prove a key point upon which prices will slide further or gain a foothold from which to attempt to test the highs once again.
US farmer selling has been absent today as growers have elected to store crops and this has pushed cash basis to stronger levels.
Egypt has, once again, entered the wheat market in a tender, this time for early Dec ’12 shipment, which saw Romania win 120,000 mt and France 180,000 mt. Prices were some $2 to $4 above the last tender.
We hear news that the Russian Agricultural Ministry is discussing sales of their intervention stocks in an effort to limit further escalation of domestic price levels.
The current price break has encouraged soybean buyers as the US reports further export sales of 140,000 mt, believed to be to China, as their crush margins get closer to profitable.
Market prices dropping as they have are stimulating demand in a way which we believe can not be sustained, we are approaching levels which can only be described as cheap when viewed in purely fundamental terms.
We are at what we can only describe as “a pivotal period” for market price development for forward periods.