• The USDA has today released its weekly export figures as detailed below:

Wheat: 564,900 mt which is above estimates of300,000-500,000 mt.
Corn: 842,300 mt which is above estimates of 475,000-775,000 mt.
Soybeans: 642,900 mt which is within estimates of 400,000-800,000 mt.
Soybean Meal: 264,500 mt which is above estimates of 100,000-250,000 mt.
Soybean Oil: 1,600 mt which is below estimates of 10,000-30,000 mt.

• Whilst on the subject of exports, Brussels have today released details of the latest weekly wheat export certificates, and running true to form they have maintained the substantial pace with a weekly total of 968,818 mt, which is the largest weekly total this season. It brings the year to date figure up to a massive 21.286 million mt, which is 6.935 million mt (48.3%) ahead of last year’s same time total.

• Despite the large EU wheat export figure for this week, the EU was not a successful tenderer in the latest foray into the market by Egypt’s GASC today. They secured a total of 295,000 mt for second half March shipment in what looks as if it could be their last tender before their harvest which should commence in April. Russia gained 235,000 mt with Romania securing the remaining 60,000 mt. French offers looked to be between $9 and $15 (basis C&F) too high, and the US soft red offer around $19 (again basis C&F) over the dearest of today’s actual purchases. Interestingly, the US FOB offer was competitive, it was the freight which killed it.

• The soybean markets have experienced a flurry of excitement today with the market gapping higher on the opening and making strong gains (to $14.52/bu basis Mar ’14 contract) as buying appeared to reach panic at one time. (March ‘14 soybeans enter first notice day today.) As we approach the close (15 minutes to go) the gains have been eroded and the Mar ’14 contract is back into negative territory and close to the low of the day. If we gap lower tomorrow we could well be looking at a bearish “island top” formation which would likely pave the way to yet lower levels – we will be watching with interest! Price action in soybeans with its associated volume has all the hallmarks of an “exhaustion top” and we would council extreme caution to any who may consider “jumping on the bandwagon”. We would refer to our last night’s commentary about the “express elevator” down to the ground floor.

• In other news, the International Grains Council added 1 million mt to their estimate for 2013/14 world wheat this month with a figure of 708 million mt. 2013/14 global corn output was left unchanged month on month at 959 million mt.